[Occupymendocino] Why the World Needs Ongoing Peace Talks Between North Korea and the United States

[Lewallen]

Why the World Needs Ongoing Peace Talks Between North Korea and the United
States

--by John Lewallen <avoidingnuclearwar.com>

August 31, 2018

                The June 12 "summit" meeting of Kim Jong-Un of North Korea
and Donald Trump, U.S. President, ended a very dangerous, escalating nuclear
confrontation which seemed to be on the verge of starting a nuclear war for
no reason at all. Now, I believe, the world needs ongoing peace talks
between these two nuclear-armed nations to avoid a senseless conflagration
threatening all life.

                As the euphoria of the June 12 meeting falls back toward the
old pattern of threat and counter-threat, with President Trump calling off a
peace-talk meeting because North Korea was not moving fast enough to
"de-nuclearize," and Defense Secretary Mattis saying that military
exercises, the annual mock invasion "war games" that Trump had pledged on
June 12 to end, will continue, I believe it is essential that all of us
understand what happened on June 12, what didn't happen, and why we all
should do our best to keep these peace talks going and growing.

On the Verge of Nuclear War

                By the end of 2017, the game of "nuclear chicken" between
Trump and Kim Jong-Un had reached a point where the North Koreans were
threatening to detonate a high-altitude thermonuclear bomb. The entire
world-wide computerized satellite web could be damaged by such a test, which
hasn't happened for many decades. 

All year Trump's threats of military attack against North Korea unless it
would give up its nuclear weapons were countered by North Korean threats of
attack against the United States, backed up by North Korean missile and
underground nuclear bomb tests intended to show their ability and
willingness to attack the United States homeland.

As Scott D. Sagan noted in his article "The Korean Missile Crisis" (Foreign
Affairs, Nov/Dec 2017, p. 72): "North Korea, South Korea, and the United
States are all poised to launch preemptive strikes. In such an unstable
situation, the risk that an accident, a false warning, or a misperceived
military exercise could lead to a war is alarmingly high."

"The North Korean nuclear arsenal is not a bargaining chip," Sagan concluded
(p.81) "It is a potent deterrent designed to prevent a U.S. attack or
disrupt one that does occur by destroying U.S. air bases and ports through
preemption."

June 12: What Happened, What Didn't, and What Could Happen

                The June 12 executive agreement, if followed up, could be a
major positive shift in United States nuclear weapons strategy, making the
whole world a lot safer place. Even if peace talks fall prey to their many
enemies in the U.S. military-industrial complex, the raw fact that a U.S.
President has tacitly acknowledged the legitimacy of the North Korean
government with this meeting is a major shift. Previously, North Korea,
according to U.S. policy, had a "regime" in need of "regime change" by
"decapitation" or all-out military attack.

                The four-point agreement signed by the leaders began by
committing "to establish new United States-North Korea relations in
accordance with the desire of the people of the two countries for peace and
prosperity." This could be a major departure from the same-old strategy of
deterrence and economic sanctions. If North Korea is no longer an enemy, the
ongoing economic sanctions and military threats make no sense. It is
obvious, even urgent, that the Korean War which began in1950 should be ended
with a formal peace treaty.

                "Yesterday's conflict does not have to be tomorrow's war,"
said President Trump. He seems to realize there is no real conflict of
interest between the two countries, which are frozen in confrontation dating
from the Cold War. His June 12 video presented North Korea with the
possibility of major economic development resulting from peace talks.

                The second point in the agreement called for negotiating "a
lasting and stable peace regime" for the Korean Peninsula.

                The third point commits the Democratic People's Republic of
Korea (North Korea) to "work toward complete de-nuclearization of the Korean
Peninsula." Note: it does not commit North Korea to eliminate nuclear
weapons.

                In my opinion, this summit never would have happened unless
Trump believed North Korea had achieved what, in nuclear strategy parlance,
is called "Second-Strike Threat Credibility": the perceived ability to hit
the United States with a nuclear counter-attack even if the U.S. obliterates
their country with a nuclear first-strike. No other reason is strong enough
to cause a U.S. President to meet North Korea on equal terms to set up peace
talks.

                The present dangerous dilemma is that Trump keeps insisting
on rapid de-nuclearization, while the North Koreans are demanding that the
United States endorse a declaration calling for a formal Peace Treaty ending
the Korean War. 

                (I believe Trump should spontaneously Tweet his endorsement
of a formal treaty ending the Korean War: what a peace coup!) 

There is virtually no chance the North Koreans will give up their nuclear
weapons until the United States also de-nuclearizes. As Sagan wrote, "Kim's
spokespeople have stressed that he will not suffer the same fate of Saddam
or Qaddafi, both of whom gave up their nuclear programs only to be attacked
later by the United States (p.81)"

                The fourth and final point of agreement is that North Korea
will assist the United States in recovering the remains of prisoners of war
and soldiers missing in action in the Korean War, which paused with a
ceasefire, not a peace treaty, in 1953. The North Koreans already are
fulfilling this pledge.

Time for a Peace Treaty Ending the Korean War

                Rising for a moment above the drama of personality and
motive involving Trump, Kim, et.al., the raw fact is that two of the world's
nine nuclear-armed nations are at war for no reason at all, a war which has
escalated into nuclear confrontation threatening to explode into nuclear war
threatening all life. No matter who leads North Korea, the United States, or
other nations, the whole world needs ongoing peace talks between the United
States and North Korea to avoid nuclear war.

                Returning to the political struggle of personality and
motive, I believe that President Trump's efforts to make peace with North
Korea are putting him in major confrontation with the U.S.
military-industrial complex which, as President and Commander-in-Chief of
U.S. armed forces, he formally leads.

Trump made two major moves toward peace apparently without informing or
consulting his closest aides, all of whom are leading members of the U.S.
military-industrial complex. First, he accepted the proposal of Kim Jong-Un
for face-to-face negotiations, an offer brought to the Oval Office by a
South Korean delegation. He even permitted the South Koreans to immediately
announce this major shift in U.S. policy. No President ever had met with the
head of the  North Korean "regime" before.

Then, on June 12, Trump made his second surprise announcement: the annual
mock-invasion military exercises involving South Korea and the U.S. would be
halted, because they are very expensive and "provocative." Recently Trump
reversed Defense Secretary Mattis' statement that military exercises would
resume, because his "very good and warm relations" with North Korean leader
Kim Jong-Un made it unnecessary to spend "large amounts of money on joint
exercises."

I believe the worldwide peace movement should support Trump's move toward
changing North Korea policy away from deterrence and sanctions-still the
basic policy today-toward peaceful and prosperous cooperation. In my
opinion, endless confrontation with North Korea is a major pillar justifying
trillions of dollars of military spending by the U.S. military-industrial
complex.

The U.S. Nuclear Posture Review issued by the U.S. Defense Department
February, 2018, justified over a trillion dollars of nuclear weapons
spending to "deter" the growing threat from four adversaries: Russia, China,
Iran, and North Korea. Immediately after his June 12 personal talk with Kim
Jung-Un, who he seems to genuinely like and admire, Trump shocked everyone
by stating what no U.S. President had said before: that the "war games"
threatening attack on North Korea might actually "provoke" an aggressive
response, or even an accidental military response. 

In short, Trump seemed to acknowledge what North Korea, Russia and China
have insistently stated for many decades: relentlessly escalating military
exercises and deployments on their borders are actually "provoking"
threatening response simply to deter a U.S. attack on their nations. In
other words, the U.S. strategy of endlessly increasing first-strike threat
force them to appear more threatening, simply to deter U.S. attack by
maintaining their "Second-Strike Threat Credibility." It is a U.S.
military-industrial complex generating its own enemies to justify endless
growth, driving the world ever-closer to actual nuclear war, which might
destroy everything.

Human survival demands that we break this military-industrial pattern of
increasing U.S. nuclear threat. Ongoing peace talks between the two warring
nuclear nations, North Korea and the U.S., are needed to avoid nuclear war
until an actual, effective peace treaty is signed by the two nations and
their allies in this outdated relic of the Cold War. Threatening military
exercises must be stopped to save us all from "accidental" nuclear war.

I am very optimistic that we, the people, can continue to avoid nuclear war,
as we have since the most recent use of a nuclear weapon in war, the August
9, 1945 bombing of Nagasaki, Japan. If Donald Trump can be the man who
shocks the U.S. military-industrial complex out of a sleepwalk to doomsday,
anything is possible! Now, I think, we all need to reject the politics of
hatred and division, and tap into the power of love that unites us all


   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

                

   

 

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